Technical Appendix
Bitcoin Network Basics
A new block is released roughly every 10 minutes.
Each block currently carries a reward of 3.125 BTC (since the April 2024 halving).
On average, the Bitcoin network produces about 144 blocks per day and 52,560 blocks per year.
Device Speed vs. Network
One Shot Miner: ~1 MH/s (1 million guesses per second)
Bitcoin Network (late Sep 2025): ~1.1 ZH/s (1.1×10²¹ guesses per second)
Your estimated fraction of the network: ~1 in 1.1 quadrillion per block
Probability Calculations
Formula:
p_block = h_device / H_networkExample (1 MH/s device, network ~1.1 ZH/s):
- Chance per block: ~1 in 1.1 quadrillion
- Chance per day (~144 blocks): ~1 in 7 trillion
- Chance per year (~52,560 blocks): ~1 in 21 billion
These odds shift as the Bitcoin network hashrate changes, but they remain extraordinarily low for small miners.